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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.